The recent explosion of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket during a static fire test has cast a shadow over NASA's ambitious Artemis program. This incident, along with the earlier failure of the 7x2 variant, has raised questions about the timeline for NASA's lunar missions, particularly the Artemis IV mission to land humans on the Moon.
The discussion on Ars Live involved space industry experts, including Ars Technica Space Editor Eric Berger, Caleb Henry from Quilty Space, and Anthony Colangelo, host of the Main Engine Cut Off podcast. The focus was on the implications of this failure for NASA's lunar ambitions.
Berger highlighted the complex architecture of Blue Origin's human mission plan, which involves four launches of the 9x4 variant of the New Glenn rocket. This variant, with nine first-stage engines and four upper-stage engines, is a more powerful version than the 7x2 variant that exploded. However, the timeline for its debut remains uncertain.
Caleb Henry expressed skepticism about the timeline, noting that Blue Origin has a history of setting dates for new rocket launches without meeting them. He suggested that the 9x4 rocket's development might take at least a year and a half, if not longer, to materialize. This delay could significantly impact NASA's plans for lunar missions this decade.
Anthony Colangelo echoed Henry's concerns, suggesting that the 9x4 variant's development might slip into the 2030s. This delay raises a critical question: How will NASA manage to land astronauts on the Moon this decade if the necessary rocket technology is not available?
The experts' discussions underscore the challenges and uncertainties surrounding NASA's lunar missions. The failure of the New Glenn rocket serves as a stark reminder of the risks and complexities inherent in space exploration. As NASA continues to navigate these challenges, the agency must carefully consider its strategies and timelines to ensure the success of its lunar ambitions.
